Worldwide spending on telecommunication and pay TV services is projected to reach $1.53 trillion in 2025, marking a 1.7 per cent increase year on year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).
The latest forecast is slightly more optimistic than earlier projections released this year, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point upward revision in total market value growth.
“The regional dynamics remain mixed, with inflationary effects, competition, and Average Revenue per User trends playing a central role in shaping market trajectories,” said Kresimir Alic, research director of Worldwide Telecom Services at IDC.
The breakdown by service type shows that mobile services continue to dominate, driven by rising data consumption and the expansion of machine-to-machine (M2M) applications, which are helping to offset declines in traditional voice and messaging revenues.
Fixed data services are also expected to grow steadily, supported by increasing demand for high-bandwidth connectivity.
In contrast, spending on fixed voice services will continue to fall, as losses in legacy TDM voice are not being fully compensated by gains in IP-based voice services.
Meanwhile, the traditional pay TV segment is projected to contract slightly amid the rise of video-on-demand (VoD) and over-the-top (OTT) platforms, although these services will remain a key component of bundled offerings from telecom providers worldwide.
The global connectivity services market is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.5 per cent over the next five years, maintaining what IDC described as a cautiously optimistic outlook.
However, recent IMF forecasts highlight that the overall environment will be less stimulating than in previous years, with rising protectionism and economic uncertainty continuing to shape the global landscape.
While declining inflation could ease cost pressures, IDC noted that it may also reduce the inflation-driven boost to telecom spending observed in recent cycles.
Political instability in regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East adds further complexity to the growth outlook, while market saturation in mature economies remains the main constraint on expansion.
“Our outlook for the Asia Pacific telecom market has been modestly downgraded, reflecting economic uncertainty in key countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia,” said Alic.
“On the other hand, India continues to outperform, with exceptional growth in mobile ARPUs pushing the market toward double-digit expansion and helping offset regional value erosion,” he added.
“In the Americas, expectations for the northern part remain largely unchanged, with slight upward revisions in major Latin American markets,” Alic noted.
“The EMEA region has seen only marginal downward forecast adjustments, but it is still projected to outpace other regions, driven primarily by hyperinflation in markets like Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria, where nominal growth rates are in the high double digits,” he said.
In response to these shifting conditions, telecom operators are focusing on margin improvement, operational efficiency, and monetisation of emerging technologies to sustain shareholder value.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly strategic role in this process, with leading telecoms deploying it across network operations, customer service, and fraud prevention to boost efficiency and reduce costs.
These initiatives are already contributing to EBITDA margin gains, with predictive maintenance and automated support systems driving improvements in performance.
AI is also enabling personalised offerings and dynamic pricing, helping to increase ARPU and reduce customer churn.
Fraud detection systems enhanced by AI are reducing financial losses and reinforcing customer trust and regulatory compliance.
By accelerating time-to-market for new services, AI is helping telecoms better monetise technologies like 5G and edge computing.
In the longer term, as AI capabilities continue to evolve, IDC expects the technology to be seen not as a mere operational tool, but as a strategic enabler of sustainable growth for telecommunications operators worldwide.
